Noncancer Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Alternative to Current Practice

Based on imperfect data and theory, agencies such as the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) currently derive “reference doses” (RfDs) to guide risk managers charged with ensuring that human exposures to chemicals are below population thresholds. The RfD for a chemical is typically reported as a single number, even though it is widely acknowledged that there are significant uncertainties inherent in the derivation of this number.

In this article, the authors propose a probabilistic alternative to the EPA's method that expresses the human population threshold as a probability distribution of values (rather than a single RfD value), taking into account the major sources of scientific uncertainty in such estimates. The approach is illustrated using much of the same data that USEPA uses to justify their current RfD procedure.

Like the EPA's approach, our approach recognizes the four key extrapolations that are necessary to define the human population threshold based on animal data: animal to human, human heterogeneity, LOAEL to NOAEL, and subchronic to chronic. Rather than using available data to define point estimates of “uncertainty factors” for these extrapolations, the proposed approach uses available data to define a probability distribution of adjustment factors. These initial characterizations of uncertainty can then be refined when more robust or specific data become available for a particular chemical or class of chemicals.

Quantitative characterization of uncertainty in noncancer risk assessment will be useful to risk managers who face complex trade-offs between control costs and protection of public health. The new approach can help decision-makers understand how much extra control cost must be expended to achieve a specified increase in confidence that the human population threshold is not being exceeded.     

The cost of herbicide resistance in white-chicory: ecological implications for its commercial release

Applications for the commercial release of herbicide-resistant crops, most of them transgenic, are likely to become more frequent in the coming years. The ecological concerns raised by their large scale use call for risk-assessment studies. One of the major issues in such studies is the relative fitness of the resistant line compared to the susceptible when no herbicide is applied since this will largely determine the long-term fate of the resistance gene outside of the field. Here we report on a comparison of a sulfonylurea-resistant line of white-chicory regenerated from a non-mutagenized cell culture with a supposedly isogenic susceptible biotype. The plants were grown in experimental plots at a range of densities in a replacement series. The reproductive output of the plants decreased with increasing density but no significant difference was found between the two lines for any vegetative or reproductive trait at any density. This suggests that no cost is associated with the mutation causing the resistance and that the resistance gene would not be selected against if it escaped to populations of wild chicories.     

Carbon source utilization of soil extracted microorganisms as a tool to detect the effects of soil supplemented with genetically engineered and non-engineered Corynebacterium glutamicum and a recombinant peptide at the community level

Abstract: Substrate utilization of microbial cells extracted from soil with a 0.85% aqueous sodium chloride solution, was determined to estimate effects on soil microorganisms at the community level with microtiter plates (Biolog GN®) containing 95 different sources of organic carbon. A consistent pattern of utilized substrates was obtained after 24 h of microtiter plate incubation at 28°C. The absorbance values (OD₅₉₀) obtained from a microtiter plate reader after background correction were transformed by using the average absorbance values of oxidized substrates as a threshold to distinguish between well utilized and poorly or non-utilized substrates and thereby reduce variances between replicates. Doubling times of the extracted soil microorganisms in the microtiter plates were tested with 12 substrates and ranged from 1.96 h to 3.23 h, depending on the carbon source. The carbon source utilization assay was used to assess the effects of soil inoculation with Corynebacterium glutamicum with and without a genetically engineered plasmid (pUN1; 6.3 kb), which encoded for the synthesis of the mammalian protease inhibiting peptide, aprotinin. Additionally, aprotinin itself was added at two concentrations to soil samples. An identical decrease in the number of carbon sources utilized, especially carbohydrates, occurred upon soil inoculation with both C. glutamicum strains after inoculation with 10⁶ cells g⁻¹ soil. This effect was only detectable during the first three weeks of incubation, as long as cell numbers of C. glutamicum (pUN1) were above 10⁵ cfu g⁻¹. Soil amendment with aprotinin resulted in utilization of additional substrates, most of them carbohydrates. With 0.1 mg aprotinin g⁻¹ soil this stimulation lasted 2 days and with 10 mg g⁻¹ it lasted for 7 days.     

A review of issues related to the quantification of bacteria from the phyllosphere

Abstract: Quantification of the size of epiphytic bacterial populations and characterization of their composition involves definition of a sampling strategy in time and space, the choice of methods for liberating the bacteria from the leaf surface and for recovering them for subsequent determination of the number of viable or culturable cells. This literature review focuses on some of the issues related to these choices. After briefly reviewing the different types of epiphytic colonizers we consider the biological, methodological, and statistical consequences of the choice of the sampling unit and of the spatial and temporal variability of population size and composition for epiphytic bacteria. The different methods available for the detection and enumeration of naturally occurring microorganisms in the phyllosphere are discussed. Advantages and drawbacks of each are described in this review designed as a 'hands-on' guide.     

Imprecise exposure assessment and the sample size requirements of case-control studies of residential magnetic field exposure and cancer in adults

A computer program simulating case-control studies is described. It is used to estimate the minimum sample size required and to assess how this is affected by imprecise exposure assessment. In particular, the consequences of neglecting measurements of nonresidential exposure in case-control studies of residentially exposed adults are investigated. According to this model, while the consequent loss of power is not as large as was predicted by algebraic methods, it would be unwise to neglect it when planning a study. © 1995 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Application of a fry (0+;) abundance index, based on semi-quantitative electrofishing, to predict Atlantic salmon smolt runs in the River Bush, Northern Ireland

An abundance index for 0+ Atlantic salmon was based on semi-quantitative electrofishing estimates at 137 sites in typical juvenile habitat throughout the River Bush (N. Ireland). 0 + abundance was linearly related to total smolt numbers migrating through a downstream trap in subsequent years ( r ²= 0.716, P <0.001), suggesting a high degree of predictive ability. This predictive ability decreased as smolt age increased, suggesting influence of density-independent mortality. Potential application of the technique to estimate smolt production from rivers having no trapping facilities is discussed, together with sources of variability potentially affecting estimates.     

抗杀螟硫磷二化螟的抗性遗传力研究

应用数量遗传学的方法分析了水稻二化螟(chilo suppressalis)对杀螟硫磷抗药性的遗传力,并就遗传力和杀虫剂的杀死率对抗性发展速率的影响进行了预测。研究结果表明：二化螟对杀螟硫磷抗性的遗传力较低(h²＝0.277),产生高抗性的潜力不大。即使在室内选择的条件下,要获得10倍的抗性约需要6-12代;在野外条件下则需要更长的时间(15-32代)。因此,结合抗性变化动态的监测结果,我们认为在野外条件下二化螟是不致于产生高抗性,杀螟硫磷仍不失为二化螟抗性治理系统中有效品种之一。     

Mitochondrial DNA sequence variation and genetic stock structure of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) from bay and offshore locations on the Newfoundland continental shelf

Bay cod, Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) that over-winter in the deep-water bays of northeastern Newfoundland, have historically been regarded as distinct in migration and spawning behaviour from offshore (Grand Bank) cod stocks. To investigate their genetic relationships, we determined the DNA sequence of a 307-base-pair portion of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene for 236 adult cod taken from the waters off northeastern Newfoundland, including fish found over-wintering and spawning in Trinity Bay. Although 17 genotypes were found, a single common genotype occurs at a frequency of greater than 80% in all samples, and no alternative genotype occurs at a frequency of greater than 3%. Genotype proportions did not differ significantly among samples. Measures of genetic subdivision among sampling locations are nil. Cod over-wintering in Trinity Bay are not genetically distinct from offshore cod. In combination with tagging and physiological studies, these data suggest that there is sufficient movement of cod between bay and offshore locations to prevent the development or maintenance of independent inshore stocks. Adult cod that over-winter in Trinity Bay appear to represent an assemblage of temporarily nonmigratory fish that have become physiologically acclimated to cold-water inshore environments. The pattern of genetic variation in northern cod suggests a recent population structure characterized by extensive movement of contemporary individuals superimposed on an older structure characterized by a bottleneck in the population size of cod in the north-western Atlantic.     

Effect of Acetate on Esterase C Activity During the Growth Cycle of Paramecium*

SYNOPSIS Enhanced esterase C activity could be demonstrated by starch gel electrophoresis in various stocks of Paramecium spp. (P. primaurelia stocks 90 and 540, P. biaurelia stock 93, P. tetraurelia stock 29. P. pentaurelia stock 87, P. octaurelia stocks 31 and 300, and P. multimicronucleatum species 3, stock 8 MO) grown in Adaptation Medium. This esterase, however, was barely detectable when they were cultivated in Axenic Medium. Addition of trypticase to Adaptation Medium resulted in reduction of esterase C in the ciliates. This effect is ascribable to Na acetate present in trypticase. Since esterase C increased with the decrease in acetate concentration (as estimated by gas-liquid chromatography) during growth of Paramecium, acetate appears to be utilized by the cells. Sensitivity of esterase C to acetate occurs in all 6 species of Paramecium examined. Different stocks within a species may have different levels of sensitivity; in one case this is genetically determined. The results emphasize the importance of controlling and manipulating growth conditions for the assessment of inter- and intraspecies variations in the isozymes of Paramecium.     

A direct approach to the measurement of genetic variation in fish populations: applications of the polymerase chain reaction to studies of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua L.

We used the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and direct DNA sequencing to study genetic variation within and among populations of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua , in the western North Atlantic. In a 307 bp region of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene, 24 variable nucleotide positions define 24 genotypes, which differ by from one to six nucleotide substitutions. Greenland cod ( G. ogac ) differs from the most similar G. morhua genotype by an additional 12 nucleotide substitutions. Silent transitions dominate both intra- and interspecific comparisons, however four nucleotide substitutions within morhua result in amino acid replacements. Direct sequencing of DNA reveals substantially more of the genetic variation that exists within and between species than do previous indirect methods based on restriction fragment length polymorphisms, and thus has far greater potential to quantify such differences as may exist among fish stocks. Preliminary experiments also indicate that automation of DNA sequencing provides an efficient, rapid, and accurate means for detection of genetic variation in natural populations offish.